AAA predicts 60% more travelers than last year, still 14% below pre-pandemic levels

12 May 2021

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MADISON, Wis., (May 11, 2021) — AAA expects a significant rebound in the number of Americans planning to travel this Memorial Day holiday weekend. More than 37 million people are expected to travel 50 miles or more between May 27 and May 31. That’s a 60% increase from last year, when only 23 million traveled, the lowest on record since AAA began recording in 2000.

In Wisconsin, more than 700,000 residents are forecast to take a trip during the holiday weekend. That’s a 56% increase from last year, when 3,880 residents traveled, due to the pandemic.

Wisconsin Memorial Day Travel Volumes

 

Total

Automobile

Air

Other

2021

711,649

676,564

30,836

4,800

2020

455,159

446,710

4,570

3,880

2019

827,433

748,852

43,905

34,686

 

“A year’s worth of pent-up demand is being unleashed this summer, as Americans anticipate the kick off to the season,” said Debbie Haas, Vice President of Travel for AAA – The Auto Club Group. “Travel bookings with AAA – The Auto Club Group have surged recently, setting the stage for what should be a busy holiday weekend and an exciting summer.”

“For many people, this will be their first summer vacation in two years, and things will look a little different,” Haas continued. “Because of the pandemic, many theme parks and hotels are running at reduced capacity, and some services are not currently available. Cruise lines are also accepting bookings, but their policies may vary based on whether you’re vaccinated. That’s why we encourage travelers to plan ahead and work with a trusted travel advisor, to ensure they get the best advice and value for their vacation.”

Significant Increases in AAA Travel Bookings

AAA Travel has noted significant increases in online traffic and bookings on AAA.com, particularly for hotels and car rentals, heading into the summer travel season. AAA booking data reveal that domestic travel and road trips remain the biggest drivers of travel recovery in the near term. Orlando and Las Vegas are top Memorial Day destinations this year, both for AAA Travel bookings and TripTik road trip searches.

The top destinations include the following:

Road Trips:

  1. Las Vegas, NV
  2. Orlando, FL
  3. Myrtle Beach, SC
  4. Denver, CO
  5. Nashville, TN

AAA Travel Bookings:

  1. Orlando, FL
  2. Las Vegas, NV
  3. Honolulu, HI
  4. Anchorage, AK
  5. Colorado Springs, CO

When planning a trip, refer to the new AAA Digital TourBook guides, now available for destinations across the U.S., Canada, Mexico and the Caribbean at TourBook.AAA.com. Available on smartphone, tablet or desktop, the new interactive guides feature detailed destination information, must-see attractions, sample itineraries and more.  

Huge Increase in Air Travel Expected, but Most Memorial Day Travelers to Take Road Trips

With 34 million Americans planning Memorial Day road trips, auto travel is expected to increase 52% compared to 2020.  Nearly 12 million more Americans will travel by car this holiday than in 2020, though this is still 9% less than in 2019. More than 9 in 10 Memorial Day travelers will drive to their destinations, as many Americans continue to substitute road trips for travel via planes, trains and other modes of transportation. The TripTik travel planner on AAA.com and in the AAA App include COVID travel restrictions for destinations, helping travelers plan road trips based on the latest requirements.

After a historically low year of air travel in 2020, this Memorial Day will see nearly 2.5 million Americans boarding airplanes, nearly six times more than last year (+577%). Still, 750,000 or 23% fewer people will take to the skies this holiday compared to 2019. AAA reminds air travelers that masks are required in all airports and on flights.

Meanwhile, just 237,000 Americans are expected to travel by other modes, including bus and train, this Memorial Day. This is the second-lowest volume on record, higher only than the 185,000 who traveled in 2020. In 2021, travel via these modes will be 88% below 2019 levels.

2021 Memorial Day Holiday Travelers (National Numbers)

 

Total

Automobile

Air

Other

(Bus, Train, Cruise)

2021 (Forecast)

37.1M

34.4M

2.5M

237,000

2020 (Actual)*

23.1M

22.6M

363,000

185,000

2019 (Actual)

42.8M

37.6M

3.2M

1.9M

Change (2019 to 2021)

?13.3%

?8.7%

?23.4%

?87.5%

Change (2020 to 2021)

+60%

+52.4%

+577.5%

+28.0%

*AAA did not issue a Memorial Day holiday travel forecast in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, actual travel volumes were recorded after the holiday for comparison purposes this year.

Drivers Beware: Worst Times to Hit the Road

INRIX predicts drivers will encounter the longest travel delays before the holiday weekend, particularly during the afternoons on Thursday, May 27 and Friday, May 28. Drivers in several major U.S. metros could experience double the travel times compared to a normal trip, while Atlanta, Houston and New York drivers could see more than three times the delay on the busiest corridors.

“Although vehicle trips are down as much as 40% in some metros, afternoon congestion is nearly back to pre-pandemic levels. With the increase of holiday travelers to the typical afternoon commute, drivers in the larger metros should expect longer delays heading into the holiday weekend,” said Bob Pishue, transportation analyst, INRIX. “Travelers should anticipate delays to start on Wednesday and continue through Memorial Day. Our advice to drivers is to avoid the evening commute times and plan alternate routes.”

Metro Area

Worst Corridor

Worst Day

Worst Time

Delay Multiplier

Atlanta

I-85 Clockwise;
Hwy 81 to Augusta Rd

Thursday, May 27

3:30–5:30 PM

3.0x

Boston

I-95 South;
MA-9 to Coney St

Thursday, May 27

3:00–5:00 PM

1.2x

Chicago

I-290 West;
Morgan St to Wolf Rd

Thursday, May 27

2:45–4:45 PM

1.2x

Detroit

I-696 West;
M-10 to US-94

Friday, May 28

2:00–4:00 PM

1.5x

Houston

I-69 East;
I-610 to I-10

Friday, May 28

3:15–5:15 PM

3.0x

Los Angeles

I-5 South; Colorado St to Florence Ave

Friday, May 28

4:30–6:30 PM

2.0x

New York

I-95 West;
US-130 to GW Bdg

Thursday, May 27

1:00–3:00 PM

5.4x

San Francisco

US-101 North; Golden Gate Bdg to I-580

Thursday, May 27

5:45–7:45 PM

1.8x

Seattle

I-5 South;
WA-18 to WA-7

Thursday, May 27

5:30–7:30 PM

1.6x

Washington, D.C.

I-95 South;
I-395 to VA-123

Thursday, May 27

3:30–5:30 PM

1.1x

 

 

 

Source: INRIX

 

Before Road Trips, Prep Your Car—And Your Wallet for Higher Gas Prices

For the 34 million Americans expected to travel by car this Memorial Day, they can expect gas prices to be the most expensive since 2014 with the national average possibly more expensive than $3/gallon.

“We don’t expect higher gas prices to deter motorists this holiday season as many Americans are eager to travel,” said Nick Jarmusz, director of public affairs for AAA – The Auto Club Group.  “We typically find when pump prices increase, travelers look for more free activities or eat out less while on vacation, but still take their planned trips.”

Currently, the Colonial Pipeline, which delivers 45% of fuel to the East Coast is offline due to a cyberattack, which will contribute to price increases and limited fuel supply ahead of the holiday. This will affect areas from Mississippi to Tennessee and the east coast from Georgia into Delaware, but hopefully be resolved ahead of Memorial Day weekend.

AAA to Rescue more than 468,000 Americans

Before hitting the road, AAA reminds motorists to plan their route in advance and ensure their vehicle is ready, to help avoid a breakdown along the way. AAA expects to rescue more than 468,000 Americans at the roadside this Memorial Day weekend.

AAA makes it easy to request assistance—by phone or text (1-800-AAA-HELP), app or online—and members can track the service technician’s progress as they make their way to your vehicle. Also, don’t leave home without an emergency roadside kit and continue to pack extra snacks or meals as well as cleaning supplies, including disinfecting wipes.

AAA Advice for traveling this summer

Regardless of how you plan to get to your destination, AAA advises travelers to seek the advice of a knowledgeable travel agent to help plan their trips this Memorial Day. To get started and to learn more, visit AAA.com/Travel.  Planning ahead is more important than in past years for hotel rooms, rental cars and even restaurant reservations.

AAA notes that the actual number of holiday travelers could fluctuate as we approach Memorial Day. If there is an increase in reported cases attributed to new COVID-19 variants, some people may decide to stay home, while others may note the strong progress in vaccinations and make last-minute decisions to travel. AAA recommends working with a travel agent, who can help if you need to make any last-minute changes to travel plans as well as explore travel insurance options and help you plan a vacation that meets your needs and comfort-level this summer.

AAA urges those who choose to travel this year to exercise caution and take measures to protect themselves and others as the pandemic continues.

Another factor contributing to the expected increase in travel this holiday is the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) recently updated guidance that fully vaccinated people can travel at low risk to themselves, while taking proper precautions. It’s important to keep in mind that some local and state travel restrictions may still remain in place, however. Travelers can refer to AAA’s COVID-19 Travel Restrictions Map and TripTik.AAA.com for the latest information to help plan their trip.

For travelers who are not vaccinated but choose to travel, CDC recommends that you practice social distancing, wear a mask, wash your hands and get tested before and after travel. Whether you are vaccinated or not, remember masks are required on planes, buses, trains, and other forms of public transportation traveling into, within, or out of the United States and in U.S. transportation hubs such as airports and stations.

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Methodology:

AAA’s projections are based on economic forecasting and research by IHS Markit, a London-based business information provider. For the purposes of this forecast, the Memorial Day holiday travel period is defined as Thursday, May 27 through Monday, May 31. The five-day holiday period is consistent with previous Memorial Day holiday periods. This forecast was finalized during the week of April 12.

In cooperation with AAA, IHS Markit developed a unique methodology to forecast actual domestic travel volumes, using macroeconomic drivers such as employment, output, household net worth, asset prices including stock indices, interest rates, housing market indicators, and variables related to travel and tourism, including prices of gasoline, airline travel and hotel stays. For the 2021 Memorial Day holiday travel forecast, IHS Markit also examined changes in the IHS Markit containment index regarding COVID?19–related restrictions and activity.

About INRIX:
INRIX is the global leader in connected car services and transportation analytics. Leveraging big data and the cloud, INRIX delivers comprehensive services and solutions to help move people, cities and businesses forward. Our partners are automakers, governments, mobile operators, developers, advertisers, as well as enterprises large and small.

About IHS Markit:
IHS Markit (NYSE: INFO) is a world leader in critical information, analytics and solutions for the major industries and markets that drive economies worldwide. The company delivers next-generation information, analytics and solutions to customers in business, finance and government, improving their operational efficiency and providing deep insights that lead to well-informed, confident decisions. IHS Markit has more than 50,000 business and government customers, including 80 percent of the Fortune Global 500 and the world’s leading financial institutions. Headquartered in London, IHS Markit is committed to sustainable, profitable growth.